02-13 Ben Baldwin of Football Outsiders with Howard and Jeremy

Howard and Jeremy
Tuesday, February 13th

Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.

It's always Simon and Jeremy White men are idiots and idiots. Stupid things how we signed it oh. Jeremy what to do. Don WG ER I really didn't think he could order Bart station Sports Radio five feet. The back ahead. Sun's out it was like 9 driving in this morning OK you know what it might be. Iffy on Thursday winter's over. Howard Jeremy straight with you here on double Jirga this a melt the ice the driver it was like a hockey rink yesterday and this morning so hope this'll melt the melt the ice make things easier. We're gonna talk some football alone without the ball well football outsiders we are talking football this morning earlier. You can always Jonas on whatever is on your mind Olympics hockey football. Diddley winks. We were talking about. Brandon being a little bit and how we should be bolder plays it safe when it comes to the quarterback decision this offseason and work. Throwing in the draft and free agency wed ever options are on the table. To find a quarterback for the bills. Boulder sake if you can let us know 8030550. That are aided 8550 to 550 and as they said is inning as you wanna discuss. If you watch the Olympics I watched it's a little bit of the Khloe Kim last night and the half pipe. I like the slope style more than half by Yahoo! yeah I mean that I preschool don't get me wrong you know as as. They're flying down the pot not half pipe there are now Ohio up in the early on everything but I like slope style because of that the jobs the minute the maneuvers that things are doing. Just caught me as really captivating but anyway. If anything formula to join discussed too that's fine and we'll talk about that as well but we're we're focused on football little bit. You can now we're getting better on the line the premise behind this is appeal hero. You have been Baldwin football outsiders he you wrote a piece at their website about play action passing. And how you actually don't necessarily need to Ron. Successfully or you don't Iran this is set up play action passing you know he's done some work and analytic and amongst often. And in reaching out to bend last night's that it pulls some numbers on the on the bills as well good morning it's Jeremy and Howard here on the leisure aria. Departing guests icu you posted a piece about. Play action passing and and it can buffalo we've off for a long time Washington team that runs the ball a lot it's been a identity of the franchise they like running backs in the first round maybe you'll get to that too. But what did you find when you when you broke down seven years of play action passes and the run game and what relationship you found. Right so that that the question they keep wondering everyone knows the average I think they can more yards and averaged urgent when it so. Whenever why he's on the ball so much one interest that you'll give it looked up to run a play action that the heat over on the open. Can partner respect your running game and and you're gonna repeat visit the election and we know the action happening on average it's more effective than. So I got but I played it. Where they marked every single parents and either play action and up play action. So I took a look at the play action passes and looked. Whether or the amount of time you've run previously in the game or how successful you are we're running previously in the game had any impact on how effective your ex pats in a measure that. Every way that I could become a button to be spreading people and no matter how you measure that you just cannot find the relationship between. How often he wrote the bulk or both picked up or they are on the low end of that they are. So there's the you do this and every team in the league over how many years. Other funny a lot of entered Tony. That's because one might think. And I am I would think it's something that a lot of people to hold kind of dear old would be if I'm a great running team. I should be able to gash teams in play action more because defense is are more committed and more willing to bite. Yet you're a big but so I followed with a Clarkson and you got you know a lot about the bill and and both would be cheap they're great example for why that's not entirely true so. Partner apple. And in point this team which I think what carrot you know disperse your Butler who uses her series is last year. Silva Villa admitted that both of the past the number one production cut up and in the entirely and they're rushing up and looking back. And minutes played sixteen that both had to immediately rest up and do it you can bet. If it. It play action passing dependent on reading debate that point sixteen abuse the bit. But but they're built it but in reality they were elected up middle of the pack you know under the mutant but it but it. Insisting. And then it then this year I'm trying to think now the bills look complexion this year. They were about the same token efforts and and what it should put that at that there's. No. Publicly available sex and didn't he can't go puke. You can mark caller pro Mubarak and I can't look at that team play action pass because Bennett Oakland actually publicly released the player I've played it. Play action into. Well it's funny you know when you you bring this up is sometimes. We'll get this call. Then on up on a bills football Monday if that if things didn't go well. It isn't even lake is still up to try and even a run games not working people say is still have to try and run to set up play action pass them they get what your run. Working after averaging like two yards a carry their stopping Iran why would they be worried about your run and be more susceptible to play action pass. Yet but that's the great question that. There is a political question tap in on sports radio and Gallup votes is another the better of concurrent with the article and and the PX Adam Berry Berry got rushing up and we're still. Not terrible actions so it looks like you can. You know being even that cute that you might run that might you know you don't feel you but I think. What in in in in all of the research did did you. Any correlation is there any kind of indication any kind of tie in with running the ball in play action at all I mean just that the numbers just never bore any of that out. The highest. The most explanatory car I think it was about 3%. Which means that about 3% in a pitched in play action passing of a minute what affected by other on the ball which is it. Agree pigs so that it or not. I know we were talking about play action. Running with a running back and all that I mean. I don't split hairs here but you're in Seattle and I thought I mean the quarterback they're runs a big deal. Let's don't read the quarterback here Tyrod Taylor runs. We we talk. About RPOs in college football how effective it is for for a number of guys. Does that does that factor into anything here that affected you might have a quarterback who also could run the ball could that play a role in an in this at all. You haven't figured questions so. I should mention that the one and it ended with that I paternity Kevin Gregg all drop back. As at the time so different quarterback scrambled or cut back at all that. And and intimate spot that was attempting to cut the journal though it is actually marked as right the question about. Reduction in the longer you would be interesting to look into. Not trying to paint. Of the Soviet you'd give it. That the way to defense that react to you you can beat tech the president might be different then. But a typical rush. And under that are out of but that the great question. And they would know that right in the play by play sheets in the game books that we see it would not note you know zone read or our PR any of that stuff they would just say the result of the plight you know Taylor passed whoever you know. That's right yeah I don't speak I have let him do it but I'm getting. Along with follow up question. From reading the few rich and actually great because that their ideas are so elegant and connect those Ellen that organic on the let me. Involving football outsiders you also a piece up about running backs in the first round something the bills have done a lot of and this year. Or early high end draft rather sick on Barkley I mean we you've seen mocked. Number one number five whenever he's expected to go very high. Is in your opinion you know what what have you thought about running backs early running backs first round Leonard for net. Or third to 1000 yard backs last year are from Florida State Ezekiel Elliott and out of cook delve into it and running backs hide. Still a bad idea a worse idea than ever before. A bigger better idea isn't picking up in my pupil police response for why I think it's about it yet so number one. The creative market by at running back that really load so if you look for example. Particularly cute getting paid you know it's not a rookie contract you're getting paid at the top of the running back part I think it's something like. Third highest paid running back and it's pretty keen even though on a Turkey contract. Where it's weaker compared to the guys you know after artillery and the then. Part of back released a that they are you getting paid. More like that's when he took the thirtieth I've paper cornerback. So. Number one it got right back you're not really doing is being compared Q&A lead here precinct where there went with most other position there's. The rookie contract that really a team. The number Hewitt they just didn't a lot of evidence that it. Dropping her right back hide it. You production above what it seems to find other places so for example letter Burnett there really tucked like he transport the juggernaut but if you look at the number if you average. Something like three point nine yards per carry in his successor it was below the average. You've compared. The Eliot and other running back for the team like rocket fuel and anymore I can that that and so all this place is saying. Bought into what is really important to quarterback is important perhaps the system or other actually important but. Just want running back got a really I probably event which you're transform a team up but everybody thinks that it. I think you know it will when we talk about running backs then I think for me I wouldn't spend a high pick on a running back because I think you can find. A guy who is good enough to be. And Malia turned the delicate work this is a goalie analogy in the NHL I think it did find a running back good enough to attack secured your offense into allow you to succeed him via. A lefty and a championship team without happening is a first round pick and statistically when it comes to quarterback the evidence might indicate otherwise typically you're gonna find a quarterback though. Russell Wilson in Seattle an exception to roll but statistically years you're looking in the first round for guy who turns out to be a franchise quarterback. You you might look at it say if you really want a truly special. In Asian Peterson running back LeSean record running back maybe that's where you say it's going to be with a high pick and that it. You can find someone who's really good at that position and not have to use a first round pick on it and I guess that's why I just never think about running back that I. Yeah I mean I hear you the respect I get from this out front Yeltsin is delicate art unless you're the first pick but he's. You instructed by the spill and it wasn't worth it to be team that actually trapping him and it would do on the to a second here so. If if you can always get debt like that would that with little investment without that you're the first round pick assessment then. Why should you and in the most recent Arctic. Paula Camara extreme high draft amendment and the economy are sure that particular and you don't need for a traffic on them. I think that's part of it to you just met I mean the bills that felt like they had this urged to keep using first round picks on running backs. CJ Spiller Willis McGahee. And you mention Marshawn Lynch and eyes. And then you can you know hey look here's Mike jealously off the street is a free agent is good I I I like you confront a running back anywhere. Not to diminish the guys who make it as a National Football League running back you can find it anywhere. All right thanks for your information thanks for coming on us this morning super early for you. Yep thanks for having me. Always a pleasure talking.