04-19 Steve Palazzolo, Pro Football Focus, talks NFL Draft on the John Murphy Show

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Thursday, April 19th

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John Murphy Chris Brown joins us here today seemed to answering to do the show tomorrow a week away from the draft. We're looking for clarity on the draft we're looking for sober headed clarity people who have a good feel for what's it's over and it could feel for what's going. Probably not looking for hybrid highly of her craziness and so we went to one of our favorite guest he's on the line with us right now on the subway Kristi like. A senior analyst of pro football focus NFL draft in college football analyst host of the PFF podcast at the FC palace on the line with a associate John Murphy Chris Brown. Here in buffalo we need sober headed analysis from you today we need clear thinking we don't need draft right you're just the guy for that. I am over draw the EU. Keep it nice and clear you guys haven't had a drink a lot. I'm not talking Autry got to you know it gets this time a year it is crazy all of a sudden one of the sports this week it became a kind of a a pass after people live. Put together plans for three team trades before the draft right and that's who can forecast then who can predict how that might work now. No I look I'm a law the build up for the drought the point where it's like Eric what do it routes they that it looked at the thing done and start talking about what. Actually happened to what the picks that actually work so I'm already where it. I am ready as well and we were ready to reach Europe. Most recent post the NFL draft narrative busters you know in the run up to the draft. As you point out they're just a lot of information a lot of evaluation. Some of it's just baloney you point out some of the biggest narratives that don't really matter anymore and expect big army field. Had plenty of easy throws in the Oklahoma off and you say that's true what did you see from bakery for you look at it is Oklahoma video. Ella baker mayfield our top rated quarterback we love him we we think he does so many things well. Well one of the knocks the people used against them was that you Oklahoma Oklahoma opposite field they've been easy or amity through without a screen that. They were at our PO game in the big twelve he'd bet his are terrible at it all that but true so you know he did have a wannabe pros who did. Wrote 1% of the attempts directly screens and yet the the highest percentage of open grows in art charting in the entire class so all that stuff was true. The problem is reported argues that it knock against them because you also really do. At these stuff that matters which is that tight window rose and obviously get those open throws better than anybody the most actors in the so it's one of those narrative that's true but probably shouldn't be used as a knock against basically field because when you're looking at. But he got a felt like stuff on film it could very well. Yeah the tight window throws I've found very interesting is as we all know the windows are tighter. When these guys get to the NFL because the coverage is better. And it was mayfield and rose in kind of leading the pack. Although mayfield was kind of alone by himself there really a full. Ten percentage points I guess based on your guys metrics ahead of even Rosen right. Yeah absolutely so again what when things gut prop. They pilgrims prayed and that's what two years running a few years it paid off her out for mayfield the dark. Super advanced QB charting that we've just started to put it all and are. Yep after app guys get on you all the numbers but mayfield on tight window wrote that we're talking down on the dual role post route or got double B. You know have to step of separation we're talking you know he had red zone rose against TCU. Where he would throw the ball up and away from coverage. Essentially all we were his receiver could get it you throw the ball around or defenders putting it all we were Newt receiver beat yet it's so. We saw that rather consistently he's got this really good feel for. Leading guys through zones and also growing. Throwing you know back shoulders and all the apps that ought to wait covered. We're all winners here can get it so there weren't a whole lot of these broke out bill but when he did make though or did attempt on the to be able to well anybody in the clot. It's even the quarterback to ask you about who also I think is somewhat polarizing in terms of people look in his college career but Mark Jackson the former Heisman Trophy winner from Louisville. The perception that the narrative is he doesn't work through progression he just runs around scrambles you found that not to be the case at all I'm Marchex. No not at all and again that golf from our news who advanced quarterback charting week that booklet. Let's try to actually identify you with quarterbacks starting on one side of the field working through his reads. We charted it for ten of the draft eligible quarterbacks the top guys in the lot. And yet the second highest percentage. Of time that he actually worked to his second or third read in the progression and when he did that he is actually really act and you know that. You know I'm not a lot of people talk about that they think because he's a great athlete because at Albany rushing yards which he did Betty just runs around you know dropped back doesn't. But the really wanted to be to feel that you just want to rotted. I'd really the opposite you know 73% of his rushing yards actually made from the site wrought but you know option like look we're just keeping it and you know but so are you part of the design running game only 47% of the rushing yards came from those scramble is not scrambling to run. And what he actually is in the pocket he is coming office urged to read and trying to get respect their greed and what he does that. He's really actors so you know somebody's Tony that he just run it around try to make plays the part of the game certainly not upbeat part of the. That's what that was the number though that surprised me the most he's effective it is 73%. Of the time. It's by design with his run run game and I wonder how. That. Inhibits. Let's just say in NFL draft evaluate her from projecting his game. To the NFL because that is such a big percentage and there's no way. Even if the team is ready to adopt. And shape an offense around Lamar Jackson that there are gonna run them that much especially with his slight frame so. How much do you think that compromises. The accuracy of a projection. To the NFL knowing the design run game was that large. A percentage you know at Louisville. Not depicted the great point admitted it does hurt it does hurt the projection of a difficult. About between if you look at that taken advantage of Lamar skill set. You do have to try to run in the U you have to try to run of 6810 times a beamer at least the correct. Okay I'm running because when he did that at Louisville what it did is it you know it doesn't renders it does. Throw a few more defenders in the box to work play action off that on the run out bought it bought about. And just like baker may feel that a product opened rose. Lamar had a lot of open throws too but I think a lot of it was not because you're playing bad defenses but it is because the rug rat. Opens things up so I do they do this fine lot of Vienna felt happy in about a lot of that the letting him make those special plate with his legs and also creating those easier throws because he's really not the most actor quarterback you can bet a lot of pros gonna. You know and that'll weeding your guy leave little bit too far behind. But if you make those throws open the Phillies complete committee can have a productive guys so ya it it's gonna take it's going to be a challenge for medical. Often deported to build around is still up perfect they're the past due to be. On the I was he tells those senior analyst for pro football focus dot com their draft in college football analyst as well I had another polarizing quarterback Josh island Wyoming. IIQ I got a tasty Steve. Our listeners people who participate in our show. There's more negativity about Josh Allen and I think it all centers around that. 57% completion percentage. But you thought about that that narrative about him being inaccurate is real infect you write that. At poor decisions in accurate passes litter his state what did you see from Jack yeah. Yeah I mean I think a lot of negativity just because for Mac completion percentage number which which don't show up on safety to bits as far too many grows it. Look he he. He jumped up on our radar in 2006 the when he was surrounded by the medical caliber players tendered gentry dig Alter pride guilty goalie they are what you guys that are on medical rosters and practice squad. And that's pretty good about Weston he did have an excellent 2016 season but even then he's still ranked a 101. Out of a 133 qualifiers in our adjusted we should percentage number which essentially says mr. guy drops that would give you credit gonna call that actor though. 101 in the nation even with all that and it felt talent. He ranks 42 and in what we call eternal word B wrote those those out that where you're. You don't miss Reno linebacker throw it right do you have a book patent that should be intercepted. So he has bad decisions she'd been amid a lot of rose. Bill absolutely make spectacular plays that made you say wow what I think that's why. Yup a lot of them between the 65 in the in it for an arm and yup what system. In the special rose but you're talking down for down accuracy. Even a judge Ellen best seat in which was too dark sixteen. He wasn't this clean top ten piper prospect in the 2017 happen. A lot of it's still a lot of its dual players move on the NFL the numbers got about what's worse. And we hear the narrative that although his supporting cast which was terrible. But the honest not much has changed a pivotal player in 2016 or seventeen. You know he's still plenty of question marks heading into the dropped. Perhaps. The bold statement you made in this piece the was that sick on Barkley is not. A generational running back I'm gonna just play devil's advocate here with your contention. And and the the angle on it and take here is. Barkley skill set as a receiver out of the backfield. Could you argue that that trumps. Your criticism here in the piece which is. He doesn't maximize the yardage based on the run blocking he received at Penn State and that's why you're kind of downgrading him. In whatever capacity you you have here. You look at what. You know the kid they came Christa McCaffery last year top ten pick due mainly to the mismatch that he is in the past game. I think Barkley is certainly not the same body type but I think he offers similar mismatch ability so. What do you say that devil's advocate argument that he's mismatch in the passing game may lift him into generational back stance. Yet if you're gonna argue with my point your partner make it you don't have the right way should. Look nobody can attract the running game in general more than me you know there's nothing more overrated than. It doubled in the raw and and you know what you know. Focus and not run blocking in run defense that's just a BP antiquated in the NFL so you make it right for you to. Be you but god that. Can light up a wide lineup in the squat tree that matches. To maximizes value though I think you have to. You have a lot like the state used outlook Camara who had you know eighty plot catches last year and in light up all over the place and ignited the way. To maximize his value added when we talk generational running back though I think the thing that gives me pause. Is a big edit their other guys that are similar to covet the week in recent years whether or Pete Elliott wave got spell you years ago. Or even Albert Tamara last year you know. If Barkley get a duplicate what can merited. You know that we've seen it for two straight years BR it was unbelievable. Last year so. Not even taught early you know we talked early the guy that probably compares favorably to Barkley early this. Near MVP candidate last year because of what he did in the past game. Well we've also seen a couple seasons from girly where his. Pour vision running the football. Made him are really an effective runner so for Barkley just beat up Herbert all around lawyer and we've heard people say that he's got a perfect grade. And that to me that's the part that's ridiculous because. There are human deeply about people is not running away from contact Bob maximizing what there are so you just not the perfect prospect but you make the right argument all the. Well if Barkley is not the per for prospective he's not a generational running back. Is guard Quentin Nelson the perfect prospect at guard what do you see from him. Yes a big he would keep off the U the about guard we'd been an art in our short time it yep up college greeting every single snap. Really did first test by I would as a redshirt freshman out of the outstanding at year. Last year's put up ninety plus overall grade current we look there it goes through the leak rate. You don't hundred ratings system. The second best guard greed we've ever seen. Just a fraction of a point Biden will Hernandez from you tapped to better about the speed so I 95 point one was what helped create last year so. He just does everything well run walk out walk run blocks. Big guys of the point of attack line backers of the second level really like belt and it could be able. They out. I got Terry we Chris and I today see you talked a lot about the cost for the bills. Moving up and maybe who jumps over the bills to move up in the draft to get one of those premier quarterbacks. If you're advising the team like the bills or anyone of these other quarterback needy teams. Is this quarterback class worthy of you don't think the cost of might take to move up there into the top six picks in order to get one of these premium oppressors what do you think. I stood at really think it depends what happened that the pop it in my world public via the Reid teed off the ground the giants and the jets who all need quarterbacks and another giant the talking about maybe getting Barkley it. Run in with you lie as their starter but in my world both received some mosque take quarterbacks and I feel much more culpable. About the POP3 quarterbacks in the draft but I do the next Mike operated baker may feel they have Donald Kerr rose. If you could go get one of those guys I'd feel much better about that but I do think you bill could only get to number four. Then you start to roll the site a little bit because then you're talking about in my world again the next your quarterbacks because the reality is it the browns take Josh Allen. Then I think it's probably worth the bills to go up to number four. And get the remains of of speaker mayfield said Donald regard frozen to me don't be workers so the reality is. I think it depends on what happens at the top of the drafted a cartel like they could you know could become good it's just a bigger role the type that it gets taken him out proper re. In my world that would open things up for the bill I would go ahead and make that. And quarterback isn't needed that you've done a comprehensive review of all 32 teams and their needs going into the draft next week. Quarterback really at the top of the bills that's right along with a couple other positions. Yeah I mean look the rosters the ruptured operate we know that. Certainly start at quarterback position so. Whatever Wheeling and dealing may need to do of course they're they're via via the extra first topic to go ahead and do that the quarterback it's your job. But I think beyond that it's you know whatever quarterback they have need better play makers because you know Kelvin Benjamin they Jones still plenty of question marks. With those guys out there the opera at the line it's still use some help all adult or in you know couples ought not be about whether that structure linebacker so I think they. They are plenty of need and obviously it all starts with quarterback yet that's solidified first. Steve Crist I haven't talked about how much we're looking forward to next week's trip and I wonder I know a lot of fans feel that way. What's coming up on pro football focus dot com that fans will be able to use of valuable tool. It's either there an hour or will be the air between now and next Thursday night at eight. Just look at bill butter PF edge in a wheat products because it's not just route you. When you sign up for it you get our draft guide yet our QB's annual would break spell quarterbacks. In ways that nobody ever has before you get infinity told you get later grades in a ball 365 days of accessories but upper edge or lead. And you get our draft guide to get ready for the draft but also all the other ones who'll get. All use access to other side beat that so I think that everything albeit the leading up to the draft and beyond. Yeah it's it's a great resource we thank his very much are spent a few minutes with us here today Steve good look at the draft Nokia phone with a got.